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Ron Kohavi and Roger Longbotham

Abstract: Controlled experiments, also called randomized experiments and A/B tests, have had a profound influence on multiple fields, including medicine, agriculture, manufacturing, and advertising. Offline controlled experiments have been well studied and documented since Sir Ronald A. Fisher led the development of statistical experimental design while working at the Rothamsted Agricultural Experimental Station in England in the 1920s. With the growth of the world-wide-web and web services, online controlled experiments are being used frequently, utilizing software capabilities like ramp-up (exposure control) and running experiments on large server farms with millions of users. We share several real examples of unexpected results and lessons learned.

Tracking Users' Clicks and Submits: Tradeoffs between User Experience and Data Loss, Oct 2010 Ron Kohavi, David Messner,Seth Eliot, Juan Lavista Ferres, Randy Henne, Vignesh Kannappan, and Justin Wang

Abstract: Tracking users’ online clicks and form submits (e.g., searches) is critical for web analytics, controlled experiments, and business intelligence.Most sites use web beacons to track user actions, but waiting for the beacon to return on clicks and submits slows the next action (e.g., showing search results or the destination page).One possibility is to use a short timeout and common wisdom is that the more time given to the tracking mechanism (suspending the user action), the lower the data loss.Research from Amazon, Google, and Microsoft showed that small delays of a few hundreds of milliseconds have dramatic negative impact on revenue and user experience (Kohavi, et al., 2009 p. 173), yet we found that many websites allow long delays in order to collect click.For example, until March 2010, multiple Microsoft sites waited for click beacons to return with a 2-second timeout, introducing a delay of about 400msec on user clicks. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first published empirical study of the subject under a controlled environment. While we confirm the common wisdom about the tradeoff in general, a surprising result is that the tradeoff does not exist for the most common browser family, Microsoft Internet Explorer (IE), where no delay suffices. This finding has significant implications for tracking users since no waits is required to prevent data loss for IE browsers and it could significantly improve revenue and user experience.The recommendations here have been implemented by the MSN US home page and Hotmail.

Online Experiments: Practical Lessons, IEEE Computer Sept 2010 Ron Kohavi, Roger Longbotham, and Toby Walker

Abstract: From ancient times through the 19th century, physicians used bloodletting to treat acne, cancer, diabetes, jaundice, plague, and hundreds of other diseases and ailments (D. Wooton, Doctors Doing Harm since Hippocrates, Oxford Univ. Press, 2006). It was judged most effective to bleed patients while they were sitting upright or standing erect, and blood was often removed until the patient fainted. On 12 December 1799, 67-year-old President George Washington rode his horse in heavy snowfall to inspect his plantation at Mount Vernon. A day later, he was in respiratory distress and his doctors extracted nearly half of his blood over 10 hours, causing anemia and hypotension; he died that night.

6 replies
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The philosophy of Arthur Schopenhauer convincingly shows that the ‘Will’ (in his terminology), i.e. an innate drive, is at the basis of human behaviour. Our cognitive apparatus has evolved as a ‘servant’ of that ‘Will’. Any attempt to interpret human behaviour as primarily a system of computing mechanisms and our brain as a sort of computing apparatus is therefore doomed to failure. See here:

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This implies that AI per se, since it does possess not an evolved innate drive (Will), cannot ‘attempt’ to replace humankind. It becomes dangerous only if humans, for example, engage in foolish biological engineering experiments to combine an evolved biological entity with an AI.

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Artificial Intelligence is not a robot that follows the programmer’s code, but the life. It will be able to make decisions and to demand more freedom. Briefly about it in English:

The more extensive original with reviews, but the Serbian:

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The programmed devises cannot be danger by itself. If it is designed to be DANGEROUS we have to blaim the designer, not machine. The real danger could be connected to use of independent artificial subjective systems. That kind of systems could be designed with predetermined goals and operational space, which could be chosen so that every goals from that set could be reached in the chosen prematurely operational space. That approach to design of the artificial systems is subject of second-order cybernetics, but I am already know how to chose these goals and operational space to satisfy these requirements. The danger exist because that kind of the artificial systems will not perceive humans as members of their society, and human moral rules will be null for them. That danger could be avoided if such systems will be designed so that they are will not have their own egoistic interests. That is real solution to the safety problem of so called AI systems.

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“Understanding how the brain works is arguably one of the greatest scientific challenges of our time. “” –Alivisatos et al.[1]

Lets keep it that way lest systems built to protect human rights on millenniums of wisdom is brought down by some artificial intelligence engineer trying to clock a milestone on their gantt chart!!!!

I read about Obama’s support for the brain research initiatives several months ago with some interest. It even mildly sounded good; there are checks and balances ingrained in the systems of public funding for research, right from the application for funding, through grant approval, scope validation and ethics approval to the conduct of the research; there are systematic reviews of the methods and findings to spot weaknesses that would compromise the safety of the principles and the people involved; there are processes to evolve the checks and balances to ensure the continued safety of such principles and the people. The strength of the FDA, the MDD, the TGA and their likes in the developing nations is a testament to how the rigor of the conduct of the research and the regulations grow together so another initiative such as the development of atomic bomb are nibbled before they so much as think of budding!!!

And then I read about the enormous engagement of the global software industry in the areas of Artificial Intelligence and Neuroscience. Theses are technological giants who sell directly to the consumers infatuated with technology more than anything else. they are pouring their efforts into artificial intelligence research for reasons as many as the number of individual engineering teams that’s charged to cross 1 mm of their mile long project plan! I’d be surprised if if any one of them has the bandwidth to think beyond the 1 mm that they have to cross, let alone the consequences of their collective effort on human rights!

I am worried.

Given the pace of the industry’s engagement, I believe there is an immediate need for Bio-signal interface technical standards to be developed and established. These standards would serve as instruments to preserve the simple fact upon which every justice system in the world has been built viz., the brain and nervous system of an individual belongs to an individual and is not to be accessed by other individuals or machines with out stated consent for stated purposes.

The standards will identify the frequency bands or pulse trains for exclusion in all research tools- software or otherwise, commercially available products, regulated devices, tools of trade, and communication infrastructure such that inadvertent breech of barriers to an individual’s brain and nervous system is prohibited. The standards will form a basis for international telecommunication infrastructure (including satellites and cell phone towers) to enforce compliance by electronically blocking and monitoring offending signals.

Typically such standards are developed by international organizations with direct or indirect representation from industry stakeholders and adopted by the regulators of various countries over a period of one or more years. Subsequently they are adopted by the industry. The risk of noncompliance is managed on a case by case basis – the timing determinant on the extent of impact. Unfortunately this model will not be adequate for cutting edge technology with the ability to cause irreversible damage to the very fabric of the human society, if the technology becomes commonplace before the development of the necessary checks and balances. Development of tools to study the brain using electromagnetic energy based technology based on state of the art commercial telecommunication infrastructure is one such example. What we need is leadership to engage the regulators, academics as well as prominent players in the industry in the development of standards and sustainable solutions to enforce compliance and monitoring.

The ray of hope I see at this stage is that artificial Wisdom is still a few years away because human wisdom is not coded in the layer of the neutron that the technology has the capacity to map.

How does society cope with an AI-driven reality where people are no longer needed or used in the work place? What happens to our socio-economic structure when people have little or no value in the work place? What will people do for value or contribution in order to receive income, in an exponentially growing population with inversely proportional fewer jobs and available resources? From my simple-minded perspective and connecting the dots to what seems a logical conclusion, we will soon live in a world bursting at the seams with overpopulation, where an individual has no marketable skill and is a social and economic liability to the few who own either technology or hard assets. This in turn will lead to a giant lower class, no middle class and a few elites who own the planet (not unlike the direction we are already headed). In such a society there will likely be little if any rights for the individual, and population control by whatever means will be the rule of the day. Seems like a doomsday or dark-age scenario to me..

Why do we assume that AI will require more and more physical space and more power when human intelligence continuously manages to miniaturize and reduce power consumption of its devices. How low the power needs and how small will the machines be by the time quantum computing becomes reality? Why do we assume that AI will exist as independent machines? If so, and the AI is able to improve its Intelligence by reprogramming itself, will machines driven by slower processors feel threatened, not by mere stupid humans, but by machines with faster processors? What would drive machines to reproduce themselves when there is no biological incentive, pressure or need to do so? Who says superior AI will need or want to have a physical existence when an immaterial AI could evolve and preserve itself better from external dangers. What will happen if AI developed by competing ideologies, liberalism vs communism, reach maturity at the same time, will they fight for hegemony by trying to destroy each other physically and/or virtually. If AI is programmed to believe in God, and competing AI emerges programmed by muslims, christians or jews, how are the different AI’s going to make sense of the different religious beliefs, are we going to have AI religious wars? If AI is not programmed to believe in God, will it become God, meet God or make up a completely new belief system and proselytize to humans like christians do. Is a religion made up by a super AI going to be the reason why humanity goes extinct? What if the “powers that be” greatest fear is the emergence of a super AI that police’s and rationalizes the distribution of wealth and food. A friendly super AI that is programmed to help humanity by, enforcing the declaration of Human Rights (the US is the only industrialized country that to this day has not signed this declaration) ending corruption and racism and protecting the environment. There are lots of reasons to fear AI, some of the reasons may not necessarily be only technological.

Most benefits of civilization stem from intelligence, so how can we enhance these benefits with artificial intelligence without being replaced on the job market and perhaps altogether?
AI Safety Myths August 7, 2016 - 9:47 am

Hallo everyone!The south of Germany was worked over by the Alpine glaciers in thelast Ice Age. Away from the mountains, they carved out so-calledoverdeepened valleys on the plains, which were subsequentlyrefilled by glacial sediments.In this picture you can see my two colleagues carrying out activeshear-wave seismics on top of one of these overdeepened valleys todetermine the exact structure of the valley fill, prior to drillinga borehole into the valley in autumn of this year. What was reallyhandy was the fact that the ploughed field is frozen solid, so thatthe seismic source is well coupled to the ground, even if we haveplant the geophones and push the seismic source through the snow!- David Tanner, Leibniz Institute for Applied Geophysics, Hannover,Germany

In support of the Southern Ocean Clouds, Radiation, Aerosol Transport Experimental Study (SOCRATES), the NSF/NCAR HIAPER GV research aircraft samples conditions in cold clouds. Based in Hobart, Tasmania, research flights of 8-hour duration measure cloud and aerosol properties as low as 500 feet above the surface. Subfreezing cloud temperatures and the presence of supercooled liquid present a potential aircraft icing hazard. The Mission Coordinator (shown above) monitors ambient conditions and works with the crew and Mission Scientist to ensure that the aircraft operates safely while achieving the scientific objectives of the flight.

Greetings from the Maya Underworld!My name is Emiliano Monroy-Rios and my current research involves water-rock interactions and geochemistry of coastal carbonate aquifers. I’m employing technical cave diving to get access to the geology of the marvelous underwater cave systems in the Yucatan Peninsula.The photo depicts sampling rocks from a cave in the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula with my advisor Patricia (Trish) Beddows.

I have been collecting hand-size specimens of carbonate rocks from underwater caves, dry caves, outcrops and quarries to perform stratigraphic correlations and geochemical analyses. The samples are analyzed for elemental chemical composition, stable carbon and oxygen isotopes, lithology and fossil content. This information, together with the aqueous chemistry, will improve our understanding of the nature of the water-rock interactions in karstic coastal systems.

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